Guerrero's homer lifts Rangers over Twins

Baseball Betting Lines

08/25/2010 - Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vladimir Guerrero's 430th career home run leading off the sixth proved to be the difference, as the Texas Rangers beat the Twins for the third straight day, 4-3, at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

Guerrero finished with three hits and two RBI for the Rangers, winners in four straight. Josh Hamilton also homered and drove in two, while Andres Blanco finished 2-for-3.

C.J. Wilson (13-5) continued his excellent season with six strong innings, allowing just three runs -- two earned -- on seven hits and two walks while fanning six. Matt Harrison notched his second save.

Danny Valencia went 3-for-4 with an RBI and a run scored for the Twins, who have lost four of five but still lead Chicago by 3 1/2 games after the White Sox lost to Baltimore. Jason Kubel and Denard Span each had two hits in defeat.

Brian Duensing (7-2) suffered his first loss since the All-Star break after yielding four runs, six hits and a walk in six frames.

After the Twins tied the game with two runs in the fifth, Guerrero put the Rangers back in front with his 23rd home run of the season leading off the sixth.

The Rangers' bullpen was able to protect the one-run lead. Michael Kirkman pitched around a two-out single in the seventh, and Darren O'Day, Darren Oliver and Alexi Ogando each recorded an out in a scoreless eighth.

Ogando stayed on to record the first out of the ninth, and Harrison retired two batters to polish off the win.

Hamilton's two-run blast in the opening inning put Texas on top, but the Twins quickly cut their deficit in half in the second on Valencia's RBI groundout.

Michael Young singled with one away in the third, moved to second on a wild pitch and scored on Guerrero's two-out base hit for a 3-1 Rangers advantage.

Valencia's base hit leading off the Minnesota fifth sparked the Twins to score twice and tie the game. J.J. Hardy singled two batters later, and Span's double plated one.

Orlando Hudson walked to load the bases with one out, and Joe Mauer's ground ball scored Hardy for a 3-3 score. Michael Cuddyer flied out with a chance to put the Twins ahead for the first time.

Game Notes

Wilson is 6-0 since the All-Star break...Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus went 0-for-4 to have a 14-game hit streak snapped...Hamilton has a hit and RBI in six straight games and has homered in four of his last five games...The season series is tied, 3-3, as the home team has won each contest.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.